November Real Estate Back In The Red

While October saw substantial sales in both dollar and transaction volume, November Summit County real estate sales dropped substantially both month to month and year over year. In November, there were a total of 230 sales down 14 percent from the year ago figure and off 29 percent from the prior month. Dollar volume declined 18 percent from last year coming in at $151.9 million. That was also a 29 percent decline from October.
Even so, year to date figures are still in positive territory. There have been a total of 2,377 transaction through November up 4 percent from 2,283 a year ago. Those transactions have totaled $1.506 billion, a year-over-year gain of 17 percent
As the dichotomy between transactions and dollars implies, prices have been on the rise. Year to date the average selling price (ASP) of a single family home in the county has been $1,084,991 up 17.7 percent from the figure a year ago. The multi-family ASP comes in at $470,841 a 15.6 percent rise from a year ago.
Not only are prices impacting higher dollar volume but mix is as well. Year-to-date, every price point above $700,000 is accounting for a higher percentage of sales than they did for all of last year. Conversely most price points at the lower end are running behind their 2016 levels. This is particularly true for sales under $300,000. In 2016 those sales accounted for 26.5 percent of all transactions. This year , the number is 16.8 percent and in November it was only 9.5 percent.
Inventory is playing a role in the change of mix. At the end of November only 7 of 328 active listings were priced below $300,00 The average listing price for all properties was $1,471,531

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October posts strong rebound.

After September declines in both dollars and transactions, Summit County real estate sales rebounded strongly in October with double digit gains in both categories. Transaction volume rose 22 percent to 322 sales while dollar volume increased 43 percent to $213.3 million. Both figures represented the highest sales for any month this year. New construction was a major contributor to the gains with 33 sales totaling $27.4 millin versus 18 sales totaling $13 million in October of 2016. Those new sales were dominated by a new condo project and new single family development in Silverthorne and a workforce housing development in Breckenridge.
Year to date, transaction volume is up 7% with 2,147 sales and dollar volume has risen 23% to $1.354 billion.
Average selling prices (ASPs) once again moved up in the month. The ASP for a single family home so far this year now stands at $1,087,922 up 18.3 percent from a year ago. Multifamily properties saw their ASP rise to $464,760, up 14.5 percent from this time last year.
As a percentage of sales, the higher end of the market is taking a relatively higher share. For all of 2016, sales under $400,000 represented 42 percent of all transactions. Year to date 2017 that number has fallen to 34 percent and in October it was only 28.2 percent. We attribute that decline to rising prices and low inventories at that price point. Currently only 10 percent of Summit County active listings are priced below $400,000.
Inventories are lower than normal in the higher end of the market as well. Overall, active and pending listings are off 11 percent from a year ago including a 16.7 percent decline in single family listings. Excluding pending properties, listings are down 8.6 percent overall with a 13.2 drop in single family listings.

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Mix and Pricing Help August Sales Numbers

Unit sales of Summit County residential properties fell in August but rising prices and a shift towards the higher end of the market generated a strong gain in dollar volume. For the month, transactions were down 3.5 percent from a year ago at 272. Following the normal seasonal pattern, however they were up 8 percent from July.
In contrast dollar volume rose a robust 22.3 percent to $170.2 million. That also reflected a 15 percent gain from the prior month.
Two factors contributed to the dichotomy between unit and dollar comparisons. First was a shift in mix. In the year ago period, properties under $500,000 were 58 percent of all sales. This August the number was less than 48 percent. Last August, more than 90 percent of sales were under $1 million. The month this year saw only 83 percent below that number.
The second reason for the difference was the effect of a substantial rise in pricing. Most major areas saw strong gains in year to date average price per square foot over last year. In Breckenridge, the number rose to 21 percent to $495. Blue River was up 32 percent to $353. Silverthorne gained 18 percent at $355. Copper and Keystone both rose 17 percent to $481 and $415 respectively. Only Frisco among the major areas, failed to make double digit gains rising 4 percent to $403.
The mix and price rises have also influenced residential average selling prices (ASPs). The year-to-date ASP for single family homes in the county is up 17 percent to $1,096,406. The multi-family ASP is up 18.8 percent to $460,631
The year to date pattern for unit and dollar volume was similar to August. Dollars rose to $981.4 million, an increase of 26 percent. Unit volume is up only 8 percent to 1,577. Once again mix and pricing were the major contributors to the difference.

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Sales Gains Moderate in May

Summit County real estate activity continued its seasonal climb in May but year over year gains were more moderate. Dollar volume for the month rose 10.8 percent from April to $126.6 million. That was a 10 percent increase from the year ago period, a gain that was well below the 31 percent year over year increase we had seen in the first four months of the year.
Transaction volume also rose sequentially reaching 197 sales versus 189 in April. That figure, however was flat with May of 2016. Transaction volume in the first four months had been averaging a 15 percent gain.
The year-to-date (YTD) increases for dollar and transaction volume now stand at 25 percent and 11 percent respectively.
From a price point standpoint, the high end of the market is smoking. YTD sales in the $2.5-$3.0 million range have tripled to 9 from only 3 sales by this time last year. Those in the $2-2.5 million range are up 140 percent from 5 to 12 and sales from $1-2 million have more than doubled to 102. Most other price points have seen moderate increases although the very low end, below $300,000, was down 28 percent primarily due to the lack of inventory. The largest volume of sales year-to-date is in the $300,000-$400,000 range with 112 transactions, followed by the $400,000-500,000 range with 90 sales.
The strong gains at the high end have moved average selling prices higher. The YTD average selling price of a single family home in the county now stands at $1,141,154, up 22% from this time last year though little changed from April. The multi-family ASP is up 16% from a year ago at $463,956. That figure is up about $6,000 from the prior month.
The modest sequential increase in sales volume did allow inventories to build somewhat. At the end of June there were 565 active listings in the county including 293 single family homes and 272 multi-family properties. That is up about 80 percent from the low we saw last January. The market is still tight, however, as half the homes that sold in May were under contract in 9 days or less. If you are looking to buy you best get on my automated MLS updates and be ready to move quickly!

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April Sees Double Digit Gains

While not quite as strong as March, Summit County real estate sales did put in a strong showing in April. Dollar volume in the month rose 28 percent year over year to $114.2 million though the number was modestly below the $123.1 million in sales seen in the prior month.
Transaction volume rose 22 percent to 189 sales. Which, unlike the dollar sales, was actually higher than March which had 178 sales. For the first four months of the year, dollar volume is up 31 percent and transaction volume up 15 percent.
Year to date average selling prices (ASPs) for single family homes slipped 6 percent from March to $1,141,417 but that figure was still up 20 percent from this time last year. Multi-family ASPs rose 2 percent from March of 2017 to $458,136 which was also 16 percent of April of 2016.
Although there was only one sale over $2 million, all price points over $800,000 (in $100,000 increments) were at a higher percentage of total sales than was seen for all of 2016. Conversely, almost all price points below $800,000 underperformed the 2016 levels.
As expected, inventories are continuing their seasonal rise. Total inventory of active and pending properties are up 44 percent from the January lows and surpassed the prior 12 month comparison for the first time this year.

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February sees mixed results after strong January

After a very strong opening in the first month of the year, February was only able to produce mixed results for Summit County real estate sales. Dollar volume was able to generate a percent gain over a year ago to $71.2 million. However that compares to a 45 percent gain seen in January. In addition, February sales were down about $21 million from the prior month.
Unit volume in the period was actually down 8% to 116 transactions versus 126 in February of 2016 and 138 in January of this year.
As the discrepancy in units versus dollars suggests, the higher end of the market was stronger than the lower end on a relative to prior year periods. Year to date, sales over $1 million have represented 17.4% of total transaction whereas they represented only 10.8 percent of sales for all of 2016.
Not surprisingly, the average sales prices (ASPs) have also risen. Year to date, the ASP for a single family home was $1,154,877, up 36% from the level of a year ago.
Multi-family ASPs are also up but not quite as dramatically. The year to date ASP for condos, duplexes and townhomes was $432,021 up 7 percent from this time last year.
No doubt prices are on the rise. So far this year the ASP per square foot in Breckenridge is $523 up 4 percent over a year ago. Frisco has seen a 27 percent increase to $439 while Keystone is up 10 percent to $385. Only Silverthorne has seen a decline, dropping 4 percent to $286.
However, rising prices alone don’t explain the magnitude of the year to date 25% gain in dollar sales. Inventories too are playing a key role. The number of listings has ticked up modestly but the count is still near historical lows. This is particularly true for lower priced properties. Across the entire county there are only 37 single family homes listed below $1 million and 65 multi-family properties below $500,000. This in a county with approximately 28,000 residential properties. In fact the average list price for a single family home is over $2 million and the average multi-family property is over $750,000.

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January shows strong start for Summit County real estate.

2017 real estate sales in Summit County got off to a strong start in January, especially at the higher end of the market. Transaction volume rose 11 percent versus the year ago month to 138 sales. Dollar volume increased a very impressive 45 percent year over year to $91.9 million. That is the highest January dollar volume on record.
The significant difference between the dollar increase and the transaction gain is explained by a a significant shift in the sales mix. Sales under the $1 million price point represented only 79.6 percent of sales versus 89.2 percent for all of last year while sales over $1 million increased from 11.8 percent to 20.4 percent. In January 2016 there were 9 sales over $1 million while the 2017 months saw 23 sales including 12 in the $1.0 -$1.5 million range.
Average selling prices (ASPs) in January rose considerably over both the year ago month and the full year 2016 average. The ASP for a single family home was $1,139,945 up 30% from last year and 22% from the 2016 average. Multi-family ASPs were also up, though more modestly. The ASP for a multi-family home hit $449,231 up about 10% from both the January 2016 level and full year average. Of course, a single month does not a year make so it would be premature to read any significance into this

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Summit County Real Estate Makes Big Jump in November

After several months of lackluster results, Summit County real estate showed a strong rebound in November in both During the month, the number of sales rose 31 percent versus a year ago to 268. That number even surpassed the 263 sales of October which is contrary to the typical trend we have seen in recent years.
Dollar volume increased an even more spectacular 86 percent year- over-year to $184.6 million and was up 23 percent from October of 2016.
For the first 10 months of the year, both dollar and transaction volume had been down 1 percent. The strong November results were able to push these numbers into positive territory for the first 11 months with a 4 percent gain in dollar volume and a 1 percent increase in transactions.
Not surprisingly given the strong dollar gains, the mix of sales skewed somewhat toward the higher end of the markets. Almost all price points about $600,000 showed a stronger performance than during the first 10 months of the year while most below $600,000 underperformed. We attribute this to the mix of existing inventory. At the end of November, there were 81 properties listed for under $600,000 versus 255 listed for over that number.
Year to date average selling prices (ASPs) also ticked up in the period. The ASP for a single family home for the year now stands at $922,163, up 7.2 percent from this time a year ago and up about $3,000 from the prior month. Multi-family ASPs reached $407,513, up $2,000 from October and about $7,400 or 1.8 percent from a year ago.
Inventories continued their downward trend. While this is the normal seasonal pattern, single family inventory (actives and pending) are off 24 percent from a year ago and multi-family listings are down 36%. Another measure showing how tight our market has become is the measure of days on market. For all properties that sold in November, the average days on market was 73. That compares to 104 days a year ago. Typically, anything below 180 days is considered a sellers’ market.

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October sees drop in Summit County real estate sales.

October presented the weakest month so far this year for year over year Summit County real estate sales. Total dollar volume dropped by 5 percent versus October of 2015 and at $149.7 million was 14 percent below the prior month. Transaction volume was down 7 percent year over year with 263 sales. That compares to 297 sales in September. The seasonal sequential month declines are not surprising, though the magnitude of the drops and the negative comparisons to last year are disappointing. For the full year to date, dollar sales are now down 2 percent at $1.1 billion and transaction volume was down the same percentage with 2,015 sales.
A price point analysis does not show any major changes in the mix of sales in October. Sales were slightly ahead in the $800,000 to $1.5 million range while the $300,00 to $500,000 range modestly under performed.
The year-to-date average selling price for a single family home has fallen to $919,120 after peaking at $941,735 back in July. Nevertheless, the number stands 7 percent ahead of this time last year and 6 percent above the full year 2015 average sales price. For multi-family units the average selling price was $405,776. While not the highest figure for the year, that number has been trending upward for the last three months and now stands 2 percent ahead of both the year ago and year end figure.
Interestingly our market isn’t far off the national trend. Across the US, sales in October were down 1% year over year while average selling prices were up 8.3% according to RE/MAX’s National Housing Report (let me know if you would like to receive a monthly copy). Inventories continue to take the blunt of the blame for lower sales and higher prices. Nation wide inventories have been down for 13 consecutive months and in our market inventories are off 31% from a year ago.

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Summit County dollar volume rises but transaction numbers fall

Reversing the previous month’s results September Summit County real estate sales showed some signs of life in dollar terms but decline in transaction volume. Dollar sales totaled $174.2 million up 5 percent from the year ago period and an impressive 25% from July. While the magnitude of the sequential gain was unusually strong, the direction wasn’t as September is typically the strongest month for real estate closings. Transaction volume in September was up modestly a modest 5 percent from August but with 297 transactions, showed a 1 percent decline from the 2015 period. Year to date, both transaction volume and dollar volume are down 1 percent at 1,752 transactions $951.5 million.
The dichotomy between transaction volume and dollar sales in the month appears to be most attributable to mix. Sales below $400,000 were only 30 percent of the total transactions versus 46 percent for the prior seven months and 47 percent for all of last year. That segment of the market is seeing strong demand but low inventories have restricted sales in recent months. Conversely, virtually all price points up to $1.5 million were running ahead of the prior years contribution with particular strength in the $1-1.5 million range. Nevertheless, the average sales price for a single family home dipped from $935,883 in August to $922,641 in September. Even with the sequential decline that number was 8 percent of the average for all of 2015. Multi-family housing faired better with the average sales price rising 3 percent to $400,798, primarily because of the lack of very low end sales. That increase put the number just above the 2015 full year level.
Inventories, peaked in August but were 23% below the prior year peak. They declined 20 percent in September and are now 30 percent below the year ago level overall with single family inventory down 16 percent and multi– family off 39 percent.

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