August Rebounds – Maybe

Posted on October 8, 2018 by Eric Buck

After a weaker July, Summit County real estate activity rebounded sharply in August. Total transaction volume rose 17% over August of 2017 with 319 total sales. Dollar volume rose an even more substantial 38 percent to $235.7 million, the highest monthly figure for the year. These figures are derived from the Summit County Clerk and Recorders office and reflect sales of all types. Some substantial commercial and land sales seem to have boosted the numbers somewhat.
Interestingly, a look at residential sales as reflected by the Summit County Realtors MLS system shows a different picture. Residential sales in the month by its accounting were up a mere 3.5 percent in dollars and actually down 13 percent in transactions. Activity does seem to be slowing. With showings in August down 24 percent.
As has been the case for most of the year, the higher end of the market is outperforming the lower end. While sales under $800,000 represent a larger share of the overall market at 57.6 and of total sales for both August and year to date, that is 9 points below its share at this point last year.
As the higher priced properties pick up share, they push average selling prices as well. At $1,129,643 the year to date average selling price for single family homes were up 3 percent from a year ago and up 1.5 percent from year end 2017. Multi-Family home prices rose 12.4 percent year over year to $517,964.
Inventories have started their seasonal decline. However, the 2018 month to month decline was far less substantial than a year ago. As a result, inventory was 5 percent ahead of last year. That gain combines a 2 percent increase in single family homes and a 9 percent gain in multi-family properties.

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June Real Estate Sees Solid Gains

Posted on August 12, 2018 by Eric Buck

Summit County real estate activity posted solid gains in the month of June. Transaction volume for the period increased 6 percent to 249 sales, the highest level for the year. Dollar volume showed an even more impressive gain of 27 percent reaching $172.3 million. That also was the highest figure for the year and greater than any month in 2017. New developments, such as Maryland Creek Ranch, Smith Ranch, The Alders and the West Hills deed restricted townhomes were significant contributors to the gains with 15 transactions totally $14.5 million.
Year to date, transactions are up 2 percent versus a year ago with 1,077 sales. Dollar volume is up a more impressive 9 percent totaling $720.4 million.
Year to date average selling prices (ASPs) ticked down in June versus May for both single family and multi-family properties. The ASP for single family homes was $1,066,151 versus $1,094,437 in June. That represents about a 4% decline versus the YTD figure for 2017. The multi-family ASP dipped $4,000 from May to $509,269. That figure, however, is 10.4 percent ahead of the year ago number.
Sales mix continues to favor the middle of the market. Properties below $300,000 represented only 11.2 percent of sales in June and 13.7 percent year to date. For all of 2017 those properties accounted for over 28 percent of all sales. At the high end, June saw only 1 sale (.5 percent of transactions) over $2.5 million. In all of 2017 there were 34 transactions over the $2.5 million mark accounting for about 1.6% of all sales.
Inventories edged up in July, though modestly and have probably reached their peak for the year. Nevertheless, total inventory is down 6.7 percent from a year ago. Multi-family homes for sale are off 3.2 percent while single family listings are down 10.1 percent.

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Low Inventory Takes a Toll on Summit County Real Estate Sales

Posted on May 8, 2018 by Eric Buck

Summit County real estate sales fell sharply in March as buyers appeared to have been discouraged by low inventories. Transaction volume was flat with February at 140 sales but was done 21 percent from February 2017. Dollar volume fell even more, dropping 30 percent to $86.6 million. The March weakness put the year-to-date figures into the red with transactions down 2 percent and dollar volume off 8 percent. Buyers are still circulating but with such limited choices they just aren’t fining what the want.
Year-to-date average selling prices (ASPs) for single family homes also took a hit in the month falling 12.5 percent from a year ago to $1,060,888. That figure, however, is only slightly below the $1,087,893 for all of 2017. Conversely, multi-family ASPs rose 19.4 percent versus this time last year reaching $535,591. That is 13 percent ahead of the full year 2017 number.
The sales mix did not show and decisive trends other than the lack of sales over $2 million and lower sales in the $200,000-$500,000 range.
Although April did see some improvement, inventories remain relatively low. For the entire county there are only 136 single family homes actively on the market. That is down from 156 a year ago. Multi-family properties are doing modestly better with 237 units for sale, up from 233 at the end of April 2017. In total there are 373 properties for sale down 4.2 percent from what were already record lows a year ago. What is even more remarkable is that figure represents only slightly little more than 1 percent of all the properties in the county.

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February Summit County Real Estate Shows Strong Gains

Posted on April 18, 2018 by Eric Buck

Defying the more typical pattern, February Summit County Real Estate sales were in line with those realized in January. Dollar volume rose $1.8 million to $89.4 million while transaction volume dipped by 7 sales to 139 transactions. Last year February showed a more normal pattern with sharp declines from the January levels. As a result, the year over year comparison for February 2018 wound up double digits. The number of transactions increased by 19.8 percent versus a year ago while total dollars increased 25.7 percent.
After the first two months, sales are up 9 percent in dollars and 12 percent in number of transactions.
After ticking up in January the year-to-date average selling price (ASP) for single family homes dropped by 1.5 percent from the year ago level to $1,138,555. However, that figure was still 4.7 percent of the average for all of 2017. Conversely, the ASP for multifamily properties rose 23 percent versus February of 2017 and is up 12.8 from the 2017 full year. With only two months under our belt, the sample size is still too small to draw any meaningful conclusions but it certainly feels as though the low level of inventories are continuing to bolster prices.
After ticking upward modestly in February the number of active listings dropped again during March. While multi-family properties for sale were essential flat at 177, the number of single family properties available for sale actually dropped from 146 to 137. That puts single family listings 9 percent below a year ago, multi-family 14.1 percent lower and overall listings 12 percent under March 31 of 2017. We do expect that as the ski areas close later this month, more properties will come out of the rental pools and be placed on the market. Although we expect this seasonal improvement in inventories we also anticipate that levels will remain near historical lows for their respective time of the year.

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Summit County Real Estate Ends 2017 On Strong Note

Posted on February 5, 2018 by Eric Buck

Summit County real estate sales ended 2017 on a strong note. December dollar volume rose 25 percent over a year ago to $153 million. That figure was also slightly above the $151.9 million realized in November. Transaction volume was also up, rising 13 percent to 230 transactions, a figure that matched the number of sales in November.
For the full year, dollar volume also rose 18 percent to $1.7 billion. Transactions were up a more modest 5 percent to 2, 607 sales. Both dollars and transactions were at their highest levels since 2007 when annual dollar volume hit $1.63 billion on 3,200 sales.
Again the differential between gains in dollars versus transactions primarily reflects a rise in average selling prices (ASPs). Both single family and multi-family categories increased 16% over the level a year ago to $1,087,893 and $473,862 respectively.
Those gains reflected both increases in prices of similar properties and a shift in mix toward the higher end of the market. For all properties, the average price per square foot in the county rose from $373 in 2016 to $430 in 2017, an increase of 15 percent. Keystone saw the largest increase, rising 19% to $435. It was followed by Silverthorne with an 18 percent increase to 366, Breckenridge up 15 percent to $580 and Frisco adding 10 percent to $433. At the same time, only 35 percent of 2017 sales were below $400,000. In 2016, that figure was over 56 percent.
Meanwhile inventories continue to set new lows. The number of active single family listings in the county has dropped 11 percent from a year ago to 137. Active multifamily listings are down 32 percent to 107. That means that less than 1 percent of all the properties in the county are currently on the market.

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November Real Estate Back In The Red

Posted on January 5, 2018 by Eric Buck

While October saw substantial sales in both dollar and transaction volume, November Summit County real estate sales dropped substantially both month to month and year over year. In November, there were a total of 230 sales down 14 percent from the year ago figure and off 29 percent from the prior month. Dollar volume declined 18 percent from last year coming in at $151.9 million. That was also a 29 percent decline from October.
Even so, year to date figures are still in positive territory. There have been a total of 2,377 transaction through November up 4 percent from 2,283 a year ago. Those transactions have totaled $1.506 billion, a year-over-year gain of 17 percent
As the dichotomy between transactions and dollars implies, prices have been on the rise. Year to date the average selling price (ASP) of a single family home in the county has been $1,084,991 up 17.7 percent from the figure a year ago. The multi-family ASP comes in at $470,841 a 15.6 percent rise from a year ago.
Not only are prices impacting higher dollar volume but mix is as well. Year-to-date, every price point above $700,000 is accounting for a higher percentage of sales than they did for all of last year. Conversely most price points at the lower end are running behind their 2016 levels. This is particularly true for sales under $300,000. In 2016 those sales accounted for 26.5 percent of all transactions. This year , the number is 16.8 percent and in November it was only 9.5 percent.
Inventory is playing a role in the change of mix. At the end of November only 7 of 328 active listings were priced below $300,00 The average listing price for all properties was $1,471,531

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October posts strong rebound.

Posted on December 6, 2017 by Eric Buck

After September declines in both dollars and transactions, Summit County real estate sales rebounded strongly in October with double digit gains in both categories. Transaction volume rose 22 percent to 322 sales while dollar volume increased 43 percent to $213.3 million. Both figures represented the highest sales for any month this year. New construction was a major contributor to the gains with 33 sales totaling $27.4 millin versus 18 sales totaling $13 million in October of 2016. Those new sales were dominated by a new condo project and new single family development in Silverthorne and a workforce housing development in Breckenridge.
Year to date, transaction volume is up 7% with 2,147 sales and dollar volume has risen 23% to $1.354 billion.
Average selling prices (ASPs) once again moved up in the month. The ASP for a single family home so far this year now stands at $1,087,922 up 18.3 percent from a year ago. Multifamily properties saw their ASP rise to $464,760, up 14.5 percent from this time last year.
As a percentage of sales, the higher end of the market is taking a relatively higher share. For all of 2016, sales under $400,000 represented 42 percent of all transactions. Year to date 2017 that number has fallen to 34 percent and in October it was only 28.2 percent. We attribute that decline to rising prices and low inventories at that price point. Currently only 10 percent of Summit County active listings are priced below $400,000.
Inventories are lower than normal in the higher end of the market as well. Overall, active and pending listings are off 11 percent from a year ago including a 16.7 percent decline in single family listings. Excluding pending properties, listings are down 8.6 percent overall with a 13.2 drop in single family listings.

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Mix and Pricing Help August Sales Numbers

Posted on October 10, 2017 by Eric Buck

Unit sales of Summit County residential properties fell in August but rising prices and a shift towards the higher end of the market generated a strong gain in dollar volume. For the month, transactions were down 3.5 percent from a year ago at 272. Following the normal seasonal pattern, however they were up 8 percent from July.
In contrast dollar volume rose a robust 22.3 percent to $170.2 million. That also reflected a 15 percent gain from the prior month.
Two factors contributed to the dichotomy between unit and dollar comparisons. First was a shift in mix. In the year ago period, properties under $500,000 were 58 percent of all sales. This August the number was less than 48 percent. Last August, more than 90 percent of sales were under $1 million. The month this year saw only 83 percent below that number.
The second reason for the difference was the effect of a substantial rise in pricing. Most major areas saw strong gains in year to date average price per square foot over last year. In Breckenridge, the number rose to 21 percent to $495. Blue River was up 32 percent to $353. Silverthorne gained 18 percent at $355. Copper and Keystone both rose 17 percent to $481 and $415 respectively. Only Frisco among the major areas, failed to make double digit gains rising 4 percent to $403.
The mix and price rises have also influenced residential average selling prices (ASPs). The year-to-date ASP for single family homes in the county is up 17 percent to $1,096,406. The multi-family ASP is up 18.8 percent to $460,631
The year to date pattern for unit and dollar volume was similar to August. Dollars rose to $981.4 million, an increase of 26 percent. Unit volume is up only 8 percent to 1,577. Once again mix and pricing were the major contributors to the difference.

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Sales Gains Moderate in May

Posted on July 9, 2017 by Eric Buck

Summit County real estate activity continued its seasonal climb in May but year over year gains were more moderate. Dollar volume for the month rose 10.8 percent from April to $126.6 million. That was a 10 percent increase from the year ago period, a gain that was well below the 31 percent year over year increase we had seen in the first four months of the year.
Transaction volume also rose sequentially reaching 197 sales versus 189 in April. That figure, however was flat with May of 2016. Transaction volume in the first four months had been averaging a 15 percent gain.
The year-to-date (YTD) increases for dollar and transaction volume now stand at 25 percent and 11 percent respectively.
From a price point standpoint, the high end of the market is smoking. YTD sales in the $2.5-$3.0 million range have tripled to 9 from only 3 sales by this time last year. Those in the $2-2.5 million range are up 140 percent from 5 to 12 and sales from $1-2 million have more than doubled to 102. Most other price points have seen moderate increases although the very low end, below $300,000, was down 28 percent primarily due to the lack of inventory. The largest volume of sales year-to-date is in the $300,000-$400,000 range with 112 transactions, followed by the $400,000-500,000 range with 90 sales.
The strong gains at the high end have moved average selling prices higher. The YTD average selling price of a single family home in the county now stands at $1,141,154, up 22% from this time last year though little changed from April. The multi-family ASP is up 16% from a year ago at $463,956. That figure is up about $6,000 from the prior month.
The modest sequential increase in sales volume did allow inventories to build somewhat. At the end of June there were 565 active listings in the county including 293 single family homes and 272 multi-family properties. That is up about 80 percent from the low we saw last January. The market is still tight, however, as half the homes that sold in May were under contract in 9 days or less. If you are looking to buy you best get on my automated MLS updates and be ready to move quickly!

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April Sees Double Digit Gains

Posted on July 9, 2017 by Eric Buck

While not quite as strong as March, Summit County real estate sales did put in a strong showing in April. Dollar volume in the month rose 28 percent year over year to $114.2 million though the number was modestly below the $123.1 million in sales seen in the prior month.
Transaction volume rose 22 percent to 189 sales. Which, unlike the dollar sales, was actually higher than March which had 178 sales. For the first four months of the year, dollar volume is up 31 percent and transaction volume up 15 percent.
Year to date average selling prices (ASPs) for single family homes slipped 6 percent from March to $1,141,417 but that figure was still up 20 percent from this time last year. Multi-family ASPs rose 2 percent from March of 2017 to $458,136 which was also 16 percent of April of 2016.
Although there was only one sale over $2 million, all price points over $800,000 (in $100,000 increments) were at a higher percentage of total sales than was seen for all of 2016. Conversely, almost all price points below $800,000 underperformed the 2016 levels.
As expected, inventories are continuing their seasonal rise. Total inventory of active and pending properties are up 44 percent from the January lows and surpassed the prior 12 month comparison for the first time this year.

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