July provides mixed message for Summit County real estate


Summit County real estate sales generated a mixed message in the month of July. Dollar sales continued the trend of double digit year over year (YOY) gains increasing 23% over July of 2014. Sales in the month totaled $117.9 million . Despite the strong YOY gain, July trailed the $129.7 million of sales in June. Typically sales peak later in the year but given that June was up 86% YOY, it’s not surprising July was a little softer and we wouldn’t be surprised by a rebound in August.
Transaction volume had a weaker performance than total dollar sales. For the month, volume was essentially flat at 202 transactions versus 201 in July of last year. Transactions were also down a hefty 23% from June.
There was no clear pattern in the mix of sales for the month. Properties below $300,000 represented a smaller percentage of total sales than in the prior 6 months as did sales in the $700,000-$1 million range and sales over 2.5 million. Transactions between $300,000 and $700,000 were above trend (53.1% of sales vs 49%) and sales in the $1-1.5 million range accounted for 6.8% of the total versus under 5.% through June.
The average single family selling price for July was in line with the prior six months and now stands at $862,351 year to date. Multi-family pricing also showed little movement at $391,230. Even the more volatile figure for land shifted down only $4,000 to $387,863. All three averages, however, are still showing strong gains, (9.8%, 9.4% and 21.9% respectively) over the year end 2014 figures.

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Boom!

For the last several years, June has typically been a softer month reflecting the shoulder season slowdown. That wasn’t the case this year. In fact, not only was June the strongest month of this year, it beat in dollars and transactions every month since December of 2007.
For the month dollar sales rose a whopping 86% over last year to $129.7 million. Transaction volume rose an equally impressive 69% to 262 transactions. May had seen sales of $116.3 million from 205 transactions.
Residential sales under $500,000 were particularly strong rising 40% over a year ago with a 50% gain below $200k and 100% gain at the $200-300K price point. Overall sales under $500,000 represented 68.2 percent of the transactions for the month which is well above the 60.3 YTD figure in May.
Mid tier properties ($500k-$1mil) didn’t fare as well representing only 23.3% of residential sales versus 29.5 in the prior 5 months. Higher end properties, however, were strong as a percentage of sales for the year but down a little from June of 2014.
The year to date average sales price for single family homes ticked up slightly from $862,364 in May to $864,074 in June. That figure is up 7% from a year ago and 10% from year end 2014.
Multi-family ASPs ticked down to $390,478 from $399,499 in May but still were 7% ahead of a year ago and 9% above the year end figure for 2014. The June drop from May most likely reflects the higher mix of low end sales than a drop in pricing for comparable units over the period.

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Summit County Real Estate Momentum Continues

May continued what is now a 7 month streak of double digit gains in Summit County real estate activity. And like the prior six months, we are talking about squeaking into the double digit category. For the month, transaction volume rose 18% to 205 sales representing the highest May total since 2007. Dollar volume increased an even more impressive 27% to $116.3 million, again the monthly high since 2007.
Year-to-date, transaction volume is now up 24% with a total of 740 sales while dollar volume has increased 34% to $408.6 million.
During the month, the very low end of the market (under $300,000) underperformed hitting only 24.3% of total sales versus 31% in the prior four months. Sales at $300,000 and each $100,000 price point above up to $800,000 represented a higher share of total sales than seen in the prior 4 months. In total, they were 61.1% of sales versus 51,7% earlier in the year. The $800,000 to $2 million range underperformed modestly but there were 4 sales over $2 million and 2 over $2.5 million. Together the $2 million plus categories were 3.5% of sales up from 1.5% in the first four months.
Year-to-date average selling prices (ASPs) did not show much movement from the levels seen in April. The year-to-date ASP for a single family home was $862,364, down slightly from the $873,006 in April but up 1% from the level a year ago and up 10% from the year end 2014 figure.
Multi family ASPs had a stronger showing. That year-to-date figure rose 3% from April, 8% from a year ago and 13% from all of 2014.
As is typical this time of year, inventories have begun to rise. Active listings of single family homes have increased from their low of 263 in January to 334. Rising sales had reduced the months of inventory to 6 in April but have not kept up with the recent surge in listings so now there are not 10 months of inventory. Multi-family inventory is up but still tight representing only 5 months of sales.

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April Summit County Real Estate Has Strongest Gains This Year

Golf course

April real estate sales in Summit County posted the strongest year over year gains in both transactions and dollars thus far in 2015. Transaction volume, at 153 sales, was up 31% besting the 26% gains seen for the first three months. The gains in dollar volume were even more impressive with total sales for the month reaching $92.4 million. That represented a 55% increase over the prior year and was considerably ahead of the 30% gain seen in the first quarter. The dollar total was the highest April sum in the last eight years.
For the year-to-date, transaction volume is up 27% to 535 sales and dollar volume has risen 37% to $292.3 million.
The lowest end of the market—under $300,000—lagged the gains made in the mid market range. Sales under $300,000 represented only 24.8% of the transaction volume in the month versus 33.6% in the prior three months. Sales between $300,000 and $700,000 however accounted for 54.4% of the volume up from 33.2% January—March. Sales over $1 million were modestly ahead representing 12% of the total versus 9.4% in the previous three months. April also saw a sale of over $3 million, the second such sale this year. In 2014, there were only 4 sales over $3 million for the entire year.
Not surprisingly given the prior statistics, year–to-date average selling prices for a single family home rose to $873,006 versus $851,420 at the end of March. That mark is 11% ahead of the year end 2014 figure of $784,779. Multifamily pricing was fairly stable versus the prior month at $389,545 but it too is up 9% from the 2014 total.
While mix certainly plays a role in determining the average selling price it would appear that people aren’t just buying bigger houses, they are paying higher prices as well. For example, in 2014, the average Breckenridge property sold at $407 a square foot. In April of this year, that number had reached $489. Other areas have seen more modest gains but nearly all markets (Silverthorne being the exception) have seen that number rise.

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Summit County real estate sales just keep on coming.

March extended the string of double digit Summit County real estate sales gains to five months running. Transactions in the month rose 25% year-over-year to 149 and were up 41% from the month of February.
The gains in dollars sales were even more impressive rising 37 % over a year ago to $83.1 million. Sales in February, while posting a strong gain over the prior year were only $50.3 million.
Year to date, transaction volume is up 26% to 382 sales. Dollar volume is up an even more impressive 30% to $199.9 million.
Sales in March were particularly strong at two price points. First, sales in $200,000 to $300,000 price range jumped to 25 versus half that many in February. Sales in the $1-$1.5 million range also saw a large increase from two in February to eight in March. We also saw 4 sales in the $1.5 to $2 million range and our first sale of the year over $3 million.
Given that strength at the high end of the market, it is not surprising that the average selling prices (ASPs) turned upward in the month as well. The ASP of a single family home year to date rose to $851,421 from $817,736 at the end of February. Single family ASPs were up 8% from the 2014 year end figure of $784,779.
With the large bump in volume in the $200,000-$300,000 range, which typically represent multi-family units, the year to date ASPs for multi-family sales dropped to $391,781 from $409,886 last month. They still are 7% above the average for all of last year. Vacant land pricing stayed relatively flat at $374,447.
While the strength in sales is certainly news, the big story is the level of inventories. Both single family and multi-family inventories are at or near 10 year lows. With sales expanding and inventories down, prices are likely to be on the rise this summer.
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The Summit County market is hot – but uneven

February is typically one of the weaker months of the year for Summit County real estate sales and this year saw the normal seasonal drop. Sales in the month totaled $50.3 million dollars down 24% from $66.5 million in January. Transaction volume saw a more modest decline but was still down 17% from 127 sales to 106.
Despite those declines from January, the month was actually very strong on a year over year basis. Dollar volume was up 25% from a year ago and transaction volume was up 28%. That makes it the second month in a row in which sales have increased in excess of 20%. For the year to date both sales and transaction volumes are up 26%. Last year at this time those numbers were actually showing declines and full year 2014 gains were only 8% and 7% respectively.
Average selling prices (ASPs) also declined from the elevated January levels. ASPs for single family homes year to date is now $817,736 down from $891,931 the prior month but that still represents a .5% gain over a year ago. Multi-family housing ASPs dropped modestly from January but at $409,886 were up 18% from a year ago. Interestingly the strong market is not distributed evenly across the county. So far this year, Breckenridge has accounted for 38% of the transactions and 52% of the dollar volume up from 34% and 40% respectively last year. Pricing also seems to be strong in the Breckenridge market with the average price per square foot running at $492 versus $414 last year. Keystone also had a solid increase rising from $267 to $310. In contrast Frisco has gone from $312 to $300 while Silverthorne has dropped from $251 to $233.
Being this early in the year the small sample size can make these ASP numbers quite volatile and highly dependent of the mix of high-end versus low end sales and in the case of square footage calculations the mix of single family versus multi-family properties. In general, the price per square foot tends to decline as the size increases so multi-family properties typically have higher square footage prices. As an example, for the first two months of this year the average square footage price for Breckenridge single family homes was $354. For multi-family properties that average was $506. By the way, the high for the period was $1,208.

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Summit County real estate off to strong start in 2015

Summit County real estate got off to a strong start in January showing double digit gains in both transaction and dollar volumes. Dollar sales increased 28 percent to $66.5 million, the strongest January dollar volume since 2008. Transaction volume increased 25% to 127 sales, a January high that has not been surpassed since 2007.
As strong as these sales were on a year over year basis, they did reflect a continuation of the typical seasonal slide we see at this time of the year. Dollar sales have been down each month since they peaked in September last year. January was down 16 percent from December and 47 percent from the September high of $126.3 million.
Average selling prices were up substantially in all property categories versus both a year ago and the full12months of 2013. The average selling price (ASP) of single family homes rose to $891,931 versus $784,779 for all of last year. That number was heavily influenced by 2 sales in the $2.5-$3.0 million range. There were only 7 such sales in all of 2013. Multi-family ASPs rose to $419,224 versus $357,612 for 2013 and the average lot price increased to $434,482 up from $318,230 last year. These prices are likely to fall in the coming months as the sample size gets larger and the mix normalizes but there is little doubt that the pricing trend is on the rise.
What is pushing up the pricing? Certainly the improving economy and soaring stock market are contributors. Another important factor is the shrinking inventory. Last year at this time, there were approximately 554 single family homes listed in the Summit Multilist system.. Currently there are 486. Multifamily units have dropped even more dramatically from 660 units to 423. No doubt inventories will rise as we move into the spring and summer but so will sales activity. In 2013 the average days on the market for sold properties was 258. In 2014 that number fell to 230 and for the last six months of that year was only 206. Six months of sales is normally considered the break point between a buyers and sellers market. We expect to be near that by mid year.

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Multiple offers

While we don’t see it often in our market, multiple simultaneous offers do happen and buyers and sellers are sometimes confused on what rules apply when they do.
In such a situation, it’s the seller that calls the shots. First of all, the seller is under no obligation to tell the buyers that multiple offers are in place. In fact, the listing broker is prohibited from disclosing the fact that an offer is in place without the seller’s permission. However, it might be in the interest of the seller to disclose the fact in order to create a competitive bidding situation . The seller also has no obligation to accept either or any of the offers or to give an opportunity for a bidder to improve his offer. Sellers should discuss their multi-offer strategy with their broker at the time of listing.

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November generates strong gains in Summit County real estate.

Summit County real estate sales posted strong gains in the month of November even against a strong 2013 month. Transactions for the period increased 19% to 203 while dollar sales were up 16% to $93.3 million. That was on top of gains of 20% and 10% in November of 2013.
For the full year, dollar sales are up 8% to $883.1 million while transaction volume has increased 5% to 1,868 sales.
Interestingly, transaction volume was relatively strong at both the low end and high end of the market while mid market properties represented a lesser percentage of sales than earlier in the year. Properties in the $200,000 to $400,000 range represented 45.1% of all transactions versus 37.5% year-to-date. Sales over $1.5 million were 3.8% of sales versus 2.8% for earlier in the year. Meanwhile sales between the $400,000 and $1.5 million range sagged to 39% of November transactions versus 47.1% for the first 11 months.
Average selling prices for the month showed little change from the prior ten months but continued to post solid gains from the prior year. Year to date single family average sales prices (ASPs) were $783,894, up slightly from $783,532 through October but had a healthy gain of 4.7% from this time a year ago. Multi-family housing dipped slightly from $360,005 in October to $355,997 in November but was up 3.7% from the YTD number for 2013. ASPs for raw land were down about 3% from the October YTD and last year at $321,489.

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Summit County Real Estate sales post modest gains.

Summit County real estate sales showed modest gains in both dollars and transactions in the month of October. For the month, transaction volume increased 5% versus a year ago to 252 sales. Dollar sales increased 6% reaching $117.5 million.
Year-to-date, transaction volume is up 4% to 1,665 while dollar volume is up 7% to $789.8 million.
While earlier in the year we had seen strengthening in the higher end of the market, October saw relatively strong transaction volume at the lower end of the market. Sales under $400,000 accounted for 57.1% of all transactions in October, well above the 49.4% of such transactions represented in the first nine months of the year. The market range of $400,000 to $2 million was below the year’s pace accounting for 41.1% of sales versus 49.3 percent through September. In fact every $100,000 price point increment in the $400-$1 million range was down (as a percent of the total) except for the $700,000—$800,000 range which increased to 6.5% of sales versus 4.7% earlier in the year.
There was some improvement in the very high end with three sales in the $2.0-2.5 million range and one in the $2.5 -$ 3.0 million range. This helped the year to date average selling price for single family homes to rise to $783,532 versus $774,644 through September. That price also compares favorably to the $757,052 at this point last year and $751, 240 at year end 2013.
Multi-family average selling prices at $360,005 were essentially flat with the September level but were up 5% from this time a year ago and up 4% from December of 2013.
Overall, per square foot average selling prices in the County are up 4% with nearly all areas of the county participating in the rise.

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