February sees mixed results after strong January

Posted on April 4, 2017 by Eric Buck

After a very strong opening in the first month of the year, February was only able to produce mixed results for Summit County real estate sales. Dollar volume was able to generate a percent gain over a year ago to $71.2 million. However that compares to a 45 percent gain seen in January. In addition, February sales were down about $21 million from the prior month.
Unit volume in the period was actually down 8% to 116 transactions versus 126 in February of 2016 and 138 in January of this year.
As the discrepancy in units versus dollars suggests, the higher end of the market was stronger than the lower end on a relative to prior year periods. Year to date, sales over $1 million have represented 17.4% of total transaction whereas they represented only 10.8 percent of sales for all of 2016.
Not surprisingly, the average sales prices (ASPs) have also risen. Year to date, the ASP for a single family home was $1,154,877, up 36% from the level of a year ago.
Multi-family ASPs are also up but not quite as dramatically. The year to date ASP for condos, duplexes and townhomes was $432,021 up 7 percent from this time last year.
No doubt prices are on the rise. So far this year the ASP per square foot in Breckenridge is $523 up 4 percent over a year ago. Frisco has seen a 27 percent increase to $439 while Keystone is up 10 percent to $385. Only Silverthorne has seen a decline, dropping 4 percent to $286.
However, rising prices alone don’t explain the magnitude of the year to date 25% gain in dollar sales. Inventories too are playing a key role. The number of listings has ticked up modestly but the count is still near historical lows. This is particularly true for lower priced properties. Across the entire county there are only 37 single family homes listed below $1 million and 65 multi-family properties below $500,000. This in a county with approximately 28,000 residential properties. In fact the average list price for a single family home is over $2 million and the average multi-family property is over $750,000.

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January shows strong start for Summit County real estate.

Posted on March 21, 2017 by Eric Buck

2017 real estate sales in Summit County got off to a strong start in January, especially at the higher end of the market. Transaction volume rose 11 percent versus the year ago month to 138 sales. Dollar volume increased a very impressive 45 percent year over year to $91.9 million. That is the highest January dollar volume on record.
The significant difference between the dollar increase and the transaction gain is explained by a a significant shift in the sales mix. Sales under the $1 million price point represented only 79.6 percent of sales versus 89.2 percent for all of last year while sales over $1 million increased from 11.8 percent to 20.4 percent. In January 2016 there were 9 sales over $1 million while the 2017 months saw 23 sales including 12 in the $1.0 -$1.5 million range.
Average selling prices (ASPs) in January rose considerably over both the year ago month and the full year 2016 average. The ASP for a single family home was $1,139,945 up 30% from last year and 22% from the 2016 average. Multi-family ASPs were also up, though more modestly. The ASP for a multi-family home hit $449,231 up about 10% from both the January 2016 level and full year average. Of course, a single month does not a year make so it would be premature to read any significance into this

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Summit County Real Estate Makes Big Jump in November

Posted on January 4, 2017 by Eric Buck

After several months of lackluster results, Summit County real estate showed a strong rebound in November in both During the month, the number of sales rose 31 percent versus a year ago to 268. That number even surpassed the 263 sales of October which is contrary to the typical trend we have seen in recent years.
Dollar volume increased an even more spectacular 86 percent year- over-year to $184.6 million and was up 23 percent from October of 2016.
For the first 10 months of the year, both dollar and transaction volume had been down 1 percent. The strong November results were able to push these numbers into positive territory for the first 11 months with a 4 percent gain in dollar volume and a 1 percent increase in transactions.
Not surprisingly given the strong dollar gains, the mix of sales skewed somewhat toward the higher end of the markets. Almost all price points about $600,000 showed a stronger performance than during the first 10 months of the year while most below $600,000 underperformed. We attribute this to the mix of existing inventory. At the end of November, there were 81 properties listed for under $600,000 versus 255 listed for over that number.
Year to date average selling prices (ASPs) also ticked up in the period. The ASP for a single family home for the year now stands at $922,163, up 7.2 percent from this time a year ago and up about $3,000 from the prior month. Multi-family ASPs reached $407,513, up $2,000 from October and about $7,400 or 1.8 percent from a year ago.
Inventories continued their downward trend. While this is the normal seasonal pattern, single family inventory (actives and pending) are off 24 percent from a year ago and multi-family listings are down 36%. Another measure showing how tight our market has become is the measure of days on market. For all properties that sold in November, the average days on market was 73. That compares to 104 days a year ago. Typically, anything below 180 days is considered a sellers’ market.

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October sees drop in Summit County real estate sales.

Posted on December 8, 2016 by Eric Buck

October presented the weakest month so far this year for year over year Summit County real estate sales. Total dollar volume dropped by 5 percent versus October of 2015 and at $149.7 million was 14 percent below the prior month. Transaction volume was down 7 percent year over year with 263 sales. That compares to 297 sales in September. The seasonal sequential month declines are not surprising, though the magnitude of the drops and the negative comparisons to last year are disappointing. For the full year to date, dollar sales are now down 2 percent at $1.1 billion and transaction volume was down the same percentage with 2,015 sales.
A price point analysis does not show any major changes in the mix of sales in October. Sales were slightly ahead in the $800,000 to $1.5 million range while the $300,00 to $500,000 range modestly under performed.
The year-to-date average selling price for a single family home has fallen to $919,120 after peaking at $941,735 back in July. Nevertheless, the number stands 7 percent ahead of this time last year and 6 percent above the full year 2015 average sales price. For multi-family units the average selling price was $405,776. While not the highest figure for the year, that number has been trending upward for the last three months and now stands 2 percent ahead of both the year ago and year end figure.
Interestingly our market isn’t far off the national trend. Across the US, sales in October were down 1% year over year while average selling prices were up 8.3% according to RE/MAX’s National Housing Report (let me know if you would like to receive a monthly copy). Inventories continue to take the blunt of the blame for lower sales and higher prices. Nation wide inventories have been down for 13 consecutive months and in our market inventories are off 31% from a year ago.

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Summit County dollar volume rises but transaction numbers fall

Posted on November 7, 2016 by Eric Buck

Reversing the previous month’s results September Summit County real estate sales showed some signs of life in dollar terms but decline in transaction volume. Dollar sales totaled $174.2 million up 5 percent from the year ago period and an impressive 25% from July. While the magnitude of the sequential gain was unusually strong, the direction wasn’t as September is typically the strongest month for real estate closings. Transaction volume in September was up modestly a modest 5 percent from August but with 297 transactions, showed a 1 percent decline from the 2015 period. Year to date, both transaction volume and dollar volume are down 1 percent at 1,752 transactions $951.5 million.
The dichotomy between transaction volume and dollar sales in the month appears to be most attributable to mix. Sales below $400,000 were only 30 percent of the total transactions versus 46 percent for the prior seven months and 47 percent for all of last year. That segment of the market is seeing strong demand but low inventories have restricted sales in recent months. Conversely, virtually all price points up to $1.5 million were running ahead of the prior years contribution with particular strength in the $1-1.5 million range. Nevertheless, the average sales price for a single family home dipped from $935,883 in August to $922,641 in September. Even with the sequential decline that number was 8 percent of the average for all of 2015. Multi-family housing faired better with the average sales price rising 3 percent to $400,798, primarily because of the lack of very low end sales. That increase put the number just above the 2015 full year level.
Inventories, peaked in August but were 23% below the prior year peak. They declined 20 percent in September and are now 30 percent below the year ago level overall with single family inventory down 16 percent and multi– family off 39 percent.

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Summit County Real Estate Sales Volume Up But Dollars Fall

Posted on October 10, 2016 by Eric Buck

Summit County real estate transaction volume in August posted a 6 percent gain over a year ago but dollar volume failed to keep pace. In the month there were 282 sales versus 267 a year ago and 215 in July of 2016. Dollar volume at $139.2 million was up from July but was off 2 percent from the year ago level. August marks the 6th month this year and 5th in a row with negative year over year dollar comparisons. Year to date, both dollar and transaction volume are in the red. The former down 3 percent and the later off 1 percent.
The $200,000-300,000 price range remains the hot spot in the market accounting for 53 sales and 23.2 percent of all residential transactions. In 2015 this price range accounted for 19 percent of sales.
Single family average selling prices which ticked up in July to $941,735 slipped back to the $935,883 in August but that still was 9.5 percent ahead of a year ago. Multi-family ASPs increased $700 from July to $387,566 but stand below the year ago $393,593 figure. We attribute that decline to the high volume at the very low end of the market rather than a softening in prices.
Inventories saw a seasonal expansion in late spring and earlier summer but only reached 80% of the levels of a year ago. The last two months have seen inventories back on the decline. The low inventories are particularly acute in the Frisco market and in the lower end properties which are often selling within days of listing at ever increasing prices.

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Summit County Real Estate Sales Volume Rises But Dollars Decline

Posted on September 6, 2016 by Eric Buck

July showed mixed results for real estate sales in Summit County. Transaction volume was up 6 percent versus a year ago with 215 sales but dollar volume declined by 11 percent to $104.6 million. Both figures showed modest declines from June.
Those results were consistent with the national trend according to the RE/MAX National Housing Report for July. Nationally, in a survey of 53 markets, 49 showed June to July declines averaging 13.1 percent. Year to date home sales are down 8.8 percent while unit sales in Summit County are down 3%.
The lower end of the market was quite active. Sales in the month below $400,000 accounted for 53.4 percent of all residential sales versus 46.9 percent in all of 2015. The average price per square foot in this segment is up over 20 percent from July of 2015 and the average days on market have been cut in half to 27 days. Many of these properties are getting multiple offers and selling in less than a week.
At the higher end the $1-1.5 million range was pretty active with 16 transactions representing 9.1 percent of all sales or nearly twice its 2015 share. The mid-tier price points and very high end were both below their historical levels.
The average single family home price in the county rose to $941,735, up 1 percent from June and 9 percent from a year ago.
Multi-family ASPs fell about 1 percent both year over year and month to month. That is reflective of the mix shift with more low end sales rather than an actual deterioration in prices.
While inventories have shown seasonal improvement, the gains were quite modest in July with multi-family units actually falling. Overall, inventories are down 23 percent from a year ago. Higher prices and lower inventories are the key contributors to the lower year over year volume.

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Sales stumble in June

Posted on August 15, 2016 by Eric Buck

Summit County real estate took a major tumbled in June when compared with the year ago month. Dollar volume declined 13 percent to $113 million and transaction volume was off 16% with 220 sales. However, things aren’t as bad as those numbers may imply as the year ago period was a blockbuster month having registered gains of 86 percent and 69 percent in dollars and transactions respectively. Even with the decline from 2015, the 2016 figures showed a 62 percent gain in dollars and 42 percent increase in transactions over the 2014 levels.
The average year to date selling price for a single family home in the county held fairly steady versus May at just short of $937,000. That mark is up 8.4 percent from a year ago and up 9.4 percent from the year end figure. Multi-family properties had an average selling price of $393,575 down about 1 percent from May of this year and off about 2 percent from the 2015 year end number.
While there were a couple of sales above $3 million, the $1-3 million range was a little soft. In June, that range represented 7 percent of transaction volume versus 8.3 percent in the prior 5 months and 9.2 percent all of last year. Conversely the share of the $700,000-$1 million range was ran a couple of points ahead of last year as did the $200,000 to $300,000 range.

I have had a number of people ask me about the apparent slowdown in the higher end of the Summit County market. It would appear there are several factors contributed to the lull.
Oil and gas prices would be first on my list of causes. The dramatic drop in prices over the last several has had a significant negative impact on petroleum related investment, employment and income. Oil and gas has been a major industry for Colorado, from which half our buyers hail as well as Texas one of our largest sources of non-Colorado buyers.
A second factor is home prices. While the lower end of the market is up modestly, higher end home prices have moved up dramatically. As an example, the Highlands is the largest concentration of high end homes in the county. In 2011, the average price per square foot of a Highlands sale was $287. In 2015 that number had risen 38 percent to $397. That increase was nearly twice that of homes priced under $1 million.
A third factor is the sluggish economy. So far we are experiencing the slowest economic recovery since the great depression with 11 straight years of sub 3 percent growth for the first time ever. With the last two quarter averaging 1.2% it’s a good bet that 2016 will be sub 3 percent as well.
On top of all this we have a Presidential election with neither candidate generating overwhelming support, even within their own party.

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Seasonal Improvement but weaker YOY Results

Posted on July 5, 2016 by Eric Buck

May continued the pattern of seasonal improvement in Summit County real estate sales but the year over year comparisons were less than spectacular for the third month in a row. Total volume rose to 197 transactions up from 155 in April. The May 2016 number, however, was 4% below the level of a year ago.
Dollar volume also rose nicely month over month from $89 million in April to $114.9 million in May. Again, however, May 2016 was down from the year earlier month, declining by about 1%.
With three months in a row of lackluster year-over-year comparisons, the year to date numbers also are showing little progress. Total dollar volume is up 3% to $420.5 million while transactions are essentially flat at 738 vs 740 at this point last year.
While recent sales growth has been tepid, new listings have exploded. As a result, inventories are up sharply. This is especially true for single family homes. Across the county 49 single family homes went under contract. Over the same 30 days, there were 121 new listings. As a result the inventory of single family homes is up better than 20%.
So far this year, the average selling prices for single family homes has been up quite substantially. Year to date, that number stands at $934,437. That is up 8% from a year ago and 9% from the full year 2015 figure. With the rising inventories and sluggish sales growth, that number is likely to drift lower in the coming months if sales activity doesn’t improve.
Multi-family pricing hasn’t kept up with the gains seen in the single family market. In fact, so far this year the average price for a multi-family property was $397,071 versus $399,499 at this point last year and a similar number for all of 2015.
Year to date the mix of sales has skewed a little upward. Lower priced properties – under $400,000 – are running behind the level of a year ago while properties over $1 million are somewhat ahead. This year there have been 4 sales over $3 million totaling $18 million versus 6 totaling $20 million all of last year.

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Steady Seasonal Improvement in Summit County Real Estate

Posted on June 1, 2016 by Eric Buck

As is normally the case, sales activities have seen small but steady increases from the typical low point in January. April transaction volume stepped up to 155 sales from 136 in March, an increase of 14%. The year over year increase was a far more modest 1%. Dollar volume in April rose to 89.0 million versus $86.3 million in the prior month. That dollar volume, however, was down from the $92.4 million of a year ago. Helped by the very strong February results, year to date transactions are up 1% to 541 while dollar sales have increased 5% to $305.6 million. While these are solid numbers, something is going to have to change if we are going to match the overall gains of last year when unit volume rose 18% and dollar volume was up 28%.
One statistic that has shown strong growth so far this year is the average selling price for single family homes. That figure was $855,925 for all of last year. So far this year, the number stands at $951,609. Pricing at the high end of the market appears to be particularly strong.
Multi-family housing has not seen the same kind of gains. For all of 2015, the average selling price of a multi-family property was $399,232. So far this year, the number stands at $394,000.
So far this year, the buyer profile has skewed a little more towards the local buyer with 31% of buyers coming from Summit County. Front range buyers represented 37% and out of state were 33% including 1% international. For all of 2015, local buyers were 25% of all sales.

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