February sees strong YOY gains on easy comparisons

Posted on March 31, 2016 by Eric Buck

February is typically a seasonally slow month.  In six of the last 8 years, February has averaged a 20.2% decline from the prior month.  This year generated the third exception to that trend  in the last 9 years with both transaction and dollar volume showing gains, albeit modest ones.

Transaction volume this February at 126 sales was two deals ahead of January but up 18.9% from February of the prior year.  Dollar volume for the month reached $67 million, up modestly from $63.2 million in January but up 33% from a year ago.  The solid YOY February gains offset a weaker January leading to year-to-dates gains of  11% and 7% in dollar and transaction volume respectively.

The average selling price (ASP) for a single family home so far this year stands at $848,954.  That is modestly below the $855,925 for all of 2015 but about  4% ahead of the level a year ago.  The multi-family ASP at $402,989 is up about $4,000 from all of last year but down $6,000 from a year ago.  It is quite interesting that, with the tight inventories we are still experiencing, prices in general haven’t felt more upward pressure.

Mix wise, there were no particularly strong or weak areas when compared to last year or the prior month.  Year to date under $500,000 was 59.3% of the sales versus 59.9% a year ago and sales over $1 million were 9.1% versus 9.4% in 2015

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Santa came to Summit County this December

Posted on January 29, 2016 by Eric Buck

Santa Claus was kind to the Summit County Real Estate market in December bringing the strongest sales gains of the year.  Transaction volume in the month rose 48% to 276 sales. While that wasn’t the highest level for any month in the year (September had 301), it was the highest December since at least 2007.  Dollar volume rose an even more spectacular 57% to $141.4 million and was the highest December in at least 9 years. This strong finish was particularly notable after the paltry results posted in November.

With the strong finish, full year numbers were quite impressive.  Transaction volume was up 18% to 2,537 sales.  Dollar sales increased 30% to $1.37 billion.

New construction was a notable contributor to the gains for both the month and the year.  For December, new home (single and multi-family) sales nearly doubled from 14 units and $14 million to 27 sales and $26 million. For the full year, units were up 43% and dollar volume rose 57%.

Average selling prices (ASPs) also showed strong gains for the year.   The single family ASP for the full year closed at $855,925 up 9% from the prior year.  The Multi-family ASP rose 11.6% to $399,232 while land rose 17.1% to $372,794.  Sales mix in the month skewed a little more toward the lower end with the closing of a number of workforce/deed restricted units in Frisco.

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Summit County sales cooling with the weather

Posted on December 30, 2015 by Eric Buck

As the temperatures have cooled so has activity in Summit County real estate. November sales had the poorest year over year performance of any month in 2015. Dollar volume rose a modest 5% to $109.9 million. While in absolute terms that dollar volume did beat the volumes recorded in each of the first four months, this was the first month in the year where the increase from a year ago fell into the single digits.
Transaction volume faired even worse actually declining 5% to 205 sales. That was the first negative comparison since August of 2014.
For the year to date, the numbers are still impressive. Transaction volume is up 15% to 2,261 sales while dollar volume is 27% higher than this time a year ago at $1.23 billion.
As the dichotomy in the sales numbers suggest (dollars up, transactions down), demand in the month shifted toward the higher end of the market. Properties below $500,000 saw their share of sales drop 5 percentage points to 55.9% of sales while sales in the $700,000 – $800,000 range increased their share by 4.6 percentage points to 10.1%and sales of $1-2 million increased by nearly two points to 9.5 percent.
Pricing within property types did not change materially during the month. Year-to-date the average selling price (ASP) for a single family home was $859,565 up about $2,000 from October and 9.5% ahead of the figure for all of 2014. Multi-family ASPs were just over $400,000 up 11.9% for last year. The average lot sale so far this year is $365,844 up 14.8%

Inventories have been steadily tightening in 2015 and as we enter the ski season and units are taken off the market to be rented, the issue has only gotten worse.
As of December 30, there were only 141 condos listed for sale in the county compared with 988 sales so far this year. That equates to only 1.7 months of inventory. The numbers for townhomes are even tighter with 30 active listings against 291 sales. That is about 1.2 months of inventory. Generally, the break point between a buyer’s and seller’s market is about 6 months of inventory. Clearly we are in a seller’s market for multi-family properties. Single family homes are less likely to be taken off the market for rentals so the situation is not quite as bad for them. Nevertheless, there are only 168 single family listings representing about 4 months of sales.

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Are mountain rental properties a good investment?

Posted on December 9, 2015 by Eric Buck

I’m often asked, “is buying a rental property in the mountains a good investment”. If one is expected to generate a positive cash flow from a fully mortgaged property, the answer is likely no. As a rule of thumb, investors need to put down 50-60% equity to be cash flow positive on a property that will be marketed and managed by a third party. If you are going to do your own marketing and management, that number might be closer to 25-30% down. In general smaller properties, say a slopeside studio condo, will provide higher returns than larger properties like a 3 bedroom townhome or large single family house. Of course this analysis doesn’t include the tax benefits of renting (assuming limited owner use) and the potential for price appreciation. If you purchase the right property, manage it well , exploit the tax advantages and have a favorable market, owning a rental property can be a good investment.
If you are thinking of buying an investment property, I have a proprietary model that can estimate your potential returns. I would be happy to put together an investment analysis for your property of interest and refer you to a number of property management companies that can estimate your rental potential (if no history exists) and describe their management services.

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Summit Count real estate sales up but at more moderate pace

Posted on December 6, 2015 by Eric Buck

Like September, Summit County real estate sales saw solid, though not spectacular , gains in the month of October. Transaction volume rose 7% to 284 sales while dollar volume increased 21% to $156.9 million. On the surface those number appear impressive but they are well behind the year-to-date gains of 18% in transactions and 30% in dollars.
Year-to-date average selling prices did not vary substantially from the prior month for any of the three major categories, single family-homes, multi-family properties and land. However, all three are up nicely versus year-end 2014 levels with single family pricing rising 9% to $857,481, multi-family up 12% to $399,825 and raw land up 18% to $375,690.
On a price point basis, the lower end of the market, i.e. sub $400,000, ran a little below the prior 9 month pace at 46.2% of the monthly volume versus 45.3% as of September. Conversely sales in the $600,000-$900,000 were up to 25.2% of the total versus 16.9% and the volume of very high-end properties, greater than $1.5 million, also was up at 4.8% of the total volume versus 4% in the prior nine months.

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Sales cool in September but still show gains.

Posted on November 2, 2015 by Eric Buck

Summit County real estate sales gains moderated in September but the month still represented the highest activity this year. Dollar volume in the month rose 13% year-over-year (YOY) to $165.7 million dollars. Transaction volume rose a more modest 5% to 301 transactions. As occasionally happens the completion of a major multi-family project did help skew the numbers upwards. The second phase of the high end Water House complex was completed and 17 properties totaling almost $17 million in dollar volume closed during the month. Without those sales, both dollar volume and transactions would have been down slightly from a year ago but still would represent the highest numbers so far this year.
Year to date, dollar sales are up 32% to $964.6 million and transaction volume has risen 19% to 1,772 sales.
The year-to-date average selling price (ASP) for single family homes stands at $855,027 up a few hundred dollars from August but up 10% from this time a year ago and up 9% for all of 2014. The multi-family ASP figure rose by $5,100 to $398,617 and now stands about 11% ahead of the 2014 figure. The Water House helped contribute to that rise with its 17 units averaging $990,000 each.
During the month, the price point mix of sales did not vary dramatically though the $300,000 to $500,000 range represented 26.4% of sales versus its prior 2015 average of 31% and the $1-2 million range rose to 10.2 % versus 7.3% in the prior eight months.
snow making

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Summit Count Real Estate- Pedal to the Metal in August

Posted on October 5, 2015 by Eric Buck

After a deceleration in growth for July, Summit County real estate sales once again hit the gas. Dollar volume in the month rose 49% to $142.5 million versus August of 2014 and was up 20.8% from July. That reflects the highest August number since 2007. Transaction volume, which was flat in July, jumped 25% from a year ago and was up 32% from the prior month at 267 sales. Year to date, dollar volume is up 37% to $798.8 million while transaction volume has risen 23% to 1,471 sales.
Price point analysis shows no major change in the mix for the month. Low end properties continue to dominate with sales under $500,000 accounting for 59.3 % of all transactions in the month versus 61.2% year to date. Sales in the $500,000 to $1,000,000 range represented 30.2% of the sales in the month and 29.5% year to date. One million plus properties were 10.5% and 10.3% respectively. Comparing the year to date figures, we do see a shift to the higher end. Last year through August low- end sales were 64.8 percent of the total, mid-market 27.6% and high-end, 7.6%.
Year to date average selling prices (ASPs) for single family properties dipped modestly from July to $854.417 but were still 8.9% ahead of the figure for all of last year. Multi-family ASPs ticked up slightly from the prior month and are up 10% from all of 2014 reaching $393,539. Land ASPs are also up, rising 18% to $376,467

Oktoberfest in Breckenridge

Oktoberfest in Breckenridge

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July provides mixed message for Summit County real estate

Posted on September 2, 2015 by Eric Buck

Summit County real estate sales generated a mixed message in the month of July. Dollar sales continued the trend of double digit year over year (YOY) gains increasing 23% over July of 2014. Sales in the month totaled $117.9 million . Despite the strong YOY gain, July trailed the $129.7 million of sales in June. Typically sales peak later in the year but given that June was up 86% YOY, it’s not surprising July was a little softer and we wouldn’t be surprised by a rebound in August.
Transaction volume had a weaker performance than total dollar sales. For the month, volume was essentially flat at 202 transactions versus 201 in July of last year. Transactions were also down a hefty 23% from June.
There was no clear pattern in the mix of sales for the month. Properties below $300,000 represented a smaller percentage of total sales than in the prior 6 months as did sales in the $700,000-$1 million range and sales over 2.5 million. Transactions between $300,000 and $700,000 were above trend (53.1% of sales vs 49%) and sales in the $1-1.5 million range accounted for 6.8% of the total versus under 5.% through June.
The average single family selling price for July was in line with the prior six months and now stands at $862,351 year to date. Multi-family pricing also showed little movement at $391,230. Even the more volatile figure for land shifted down only $4,000 to $387,863. All three averages, however, are still showing strong gains, (9.8%, 9.4% and 21.9% respectively) over the year end 2014 figures.

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Boom!

Posted on August 10, 2015 by Eric Buck

For the last several years, June has typically been a softer month reflecting the shoulder season slowdown. That wasn’t the case this year. In fact, not only was June the strongest month of this year, it beat in dollars and transactions every month since December of 2007.
For the month dollar sales rose a whopping 86% over last year to $129.7 million. Transaction volume rose an equally impressive 69% to 262 transactions. May had seen sales of $116.3 million from 205 transactions.
Residential sales under $500,000 were particularly strong rising 40% over a year ago with a 50% gain below $200k and 100% gain at the $200-300K price point. Overall sales under $500,000 represented 68.2 percent of the transactions for the month which is well above the 60.3 YTD figure in May.
Mid tier properties ($500k-$1mil) didn’t fare as well representing only 23.3% of residential sales versus 29.5 in the prior 5 months. Higher end properties, however, were strong as a percentage of sales for the year but down a little from June of 2014.
The year to date average sales price for single family homes ticked up slightly from $862,364 in May to $864,074 in June. That figure is up 7% from a year ago and 10% from year end 2014.
Multi-family ASPs ticked down to $390,478 from $399,499 in May but still were 7% ahead of a year ago and 9% above the year end figure for 2014. The June drop from May most likely reflects the higher mix of low end sales than a drop in pricing for comparable units over the period.

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Summit County Real Estate Momentum Continues

Posted on June 30, 2015 by Eric Buck

May continued what is now a 7 month streak of double digit gains in Summit County real estate activity. And like the prior six months, we are talking about squeaking into the double digit category. For the month, transaction volume rose 18% to 205 sales representing the highest May total since 2007. Dollar volume increased an even more impressive 27% to $116.3 million, again the monthly high since 2007.
Year-to-date, transaction volume is now up 24% with a total of 740 sales while dollar volume has increased 34% to $408.6 million.
During the month, the very low end of the market (under $300,000) underperformed hitting only 24.3% of total sales versus 31% in the prior four months. Sales at $300,000 and each $100,000 price point above up to $800,000 represented a higher share of total sales than seen in the prior 4 months. In total, they were 61.1% of sales versus 51,7% earlier in the year. The $800,000 to $2 million range underperformed modestly but there were 4 sales over $2 million and 2 over $2.5 million. Together the $2 million plus categories were 3.5% of sales up from 1.5% in the first four months.
Year-to-date average selling prices (ASPs) did not show much movement from the levels seen in April. The year-to-date ASP for a single family home was $862,364, down slightly from the $873,006 in April but up 1% from the level a year ago and up 10% from the year end 2014 figure.
Multi family ASPs had a stronger showing. That year-to-date figure rose 3% from April, 8% from a year ago and 13% from all of 2014.
As is typical this time of year, inventories have begun to rise. Active listings of single family homes have increased from their low of 263 in January to 334. Rising sales had reduced the months of inventory to 6 in April but have not kept up with the recent surge in listings so now there are not 10 months of inventory. Multi-family inventory is up but still tight representing only 5 months of sales.

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